Showbiz Sandbox 293: Why Forecasting Box Office Has Become So Difficult




Showbiz Sandbox show

Summary: Though this year’s North American summer box office may wind up being the second biggest on record at $4.4 billion, movie studios are finding it far more difficult to predict opening weekend grosses. An article in the Hollywood Reporter details how tracking pre-release box office has become unreliable in an age when social media buzz and movie review aggregation have become so prevalent.<br> Word-of-mouth can now spread so quickly that movies like “Ted 2” can be doomed 24 hours after release, opening 33% below its estimated $50 million first weekend gross. And it’s not just flops that suffer tracking mishaps, as evidenced by “Jurassic World” bowing to $208 million, 60% more than originally anticipated.<br> Until now, Apple hasn’t had to worry about movie box office or even television ratings, but all that might change if rumors the company is getting into producing original content are at all true.<br> Of course we also cover the week’s top entertainment news including why Aretha Franklin wound up in court last week, why DreamWorks is leaving Disney and who the Academy selected to produce next year’s Oscar telecast.<br> <br> Weekend Report -‘War Room’ Walks to #1<br><br> <a href="http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4102&amp;p=.htm" target="_blank">http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4102&amp;p=.htm</a><br> ‘Welcome to Death Row’ Shopped as ‘Straight Outta Compton’ “Sequel”<br><br> <a href="http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/welcome-death-row-shopped-as-819437" target="_blank">http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/welcome-death-row-shopped-as-819437</a><br> Box Office: Universal, Disney Fuel Second-Biggest Summer Ever in U.S.<br><br> <a href="http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-universal-fuels-second-820807" target="_blank">http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-universal-fuels-second-820807</a><br> Summer Box Office Poised To Be 2nd-Best Ever, So Why Isn’t Everybody Happy?<br><br> <a href="https://deadline.com/2015/09/summer-box-office-2015-near-record-jurassic-world-avengers-age-of-ultron-1201514455/" target="_blank">https://deadline.com/2015/09/summer-box-office-2015-near-record-jurassic-world-avengers-age-of-ultron-1201514455/</a><br> Summer Box Office: How Movie Tracking Went Off the Rails<br><br> <a href="http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/summer-box-office-how-movie-819250" target="_blank">http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/summer-box-office-how-movie-819250</a><br> Opa! Get Ready For A ‘Mamma Mia’ Sequel<br><br> <a href="http://nypost.com/2015/09/01/opa-get-ready-for-a-mamma-mia-sequel/" target="_blank">http://nypost.com/2015/09/01/opa-get-ready-for-a-mamma-mia-sequel/</a><br> Matilda Reaches a Broadway Milestone<br><br> <a href="http://playbill.com/news/article/matilda-reaches-a-broadway-milestone-360359" target="_blank">http://playbill.com/news/article/matilda-reaches-a-broadway-milestone-360359</a><br> Steven Spielberg’s DreamWorks to Split From Disney, in Talks With Universal<br><br> <a href="http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/steven-spielbergs-dreamworks-split-disney-819594" target="_blank">http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/steven-spielbergs-dreamworks-split-disney-819594</a><br> Spielberg Plunges Into The Cold War<br><br> <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/fall-movie-preview-spielberg-plunges-cold-war-131839190.html" target="_blank">http://news.yahoo.com/fall-movie-preview-spielberg-plunges-cold-war-131839190.html</a><br> Oscars: David Hill and Reginald Hudlin to Produce<br><br> <a href="http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/oscars-david-hill-reginald-hudlin-819527" target="_blank">http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/oscars-david-hill-reginald-hudlin-819527</a><br> China Approves Film About Gay Love Story for First Time<br><br> <a href="http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/china-approves-film-gay-love-819952" target="_blank">http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/china-approves-film-gay-love-819952</a><br>