Betting 360 Ep 008: Dave Talks To Legendary Bookmaker Dominic Beirne – Part 2




Betting 360 - Betting From All Angles show

Summary: Dave continues his talk with the highly respected punter, bookmaker and form analyst Dominic Beirne. Punting Insights You'll Find What you can learn from last minute odds movements. The importance of speed maps and how to keep your inputs objective. Dominic's most successful type of races. How to get the most value out of being a Betfair client. Comparing your assessments to the odds available and how to factor in the public opinion. Betting for place vs betting for a win. Dominic's early recommendations for the 2013 Melbourne Cup Today's Guest: Dominic Beirne Betfair Dominic's Closing Tip: "I've got to say that it's hard not to be impressed by Fiorente, and I've got to say that at the moment I think he's the horse that would be very hard to beat in the cup " Get the Transcript: Episode 007: Dave Talks To Legendary Bookmaker Dominic Beirne - Part 2 Welcome to Betting 360, your number one source for horse racing and sports betting insights. Coming around the bend is your host David Duffield, with another expert view to give you the winning edge. David: Hello and welcome to Betting 360. I’m your host David Duffield, and each week I bring a special guest onto the podcast, to look at punting from all different angles. This is part two of an interview we did with Dominic Beirne, he was the biggest bookmaker in Australia when he was still in his twenties and he’s had a long and very successful career, a lot of that comes down to what I suppose you’d call a super computer. But we want to delve into that some more, and also just find out what the everyday punter can learn from someone as successful as Dom. David: What about horses, either last start or recent starting prices? I know a lot of the bigger players are of the view that you know the race is run once and luck in running and other factors can come into it, so what the market assessment of a horse is can be a good guide. Are you of the same belief? Dominic: Particularly with babies. I think it’s a very good indicator to know that the public like a horse considerably, particularly if it lost. So yeah, there was something to inform the public to that view when you didn’t have the information. Let’s say it was a first starter, or a second starter, so early on it’s valuable, the trouble with it later on is that you know, you can’t always easily measure the factors that went into its most recent price. So last start it might of had a whole bunch of favourable things that made it a 3/1 chance, where if it didn’t have all those favourable things it might’ve been a 12/1 chance. So you know the most recent price as a factor, in my opinion, loses significance with..proportionally to the number of starts. David: Okay.  Does breeding play any part in your analysis? Dominic: No it doesn’t. I mean I would’ve like to of…I remember early on when I was betting heavily in the 1980’s when I had a big start on the barrier trials, and I used to have a colleague who was very clever at analysing pedigrees. So you know I would hear him more, and he would analyse the pedigrees for me on the basis that you know, who had a two year-old pedigree, who had a first start pedigree, etcetera. And from that perspective it was quite valuable, I’m pretty sure it’s probably still valuable, but it’s not something that I’ve considered myself expert enough. But there’s plenty of data out there, and plenty of information out there about different ratings on, and that you can then multiply you know…the sire by the dam and come up with a figure, and you know a proportion of first starters to win by this sire and etcetera. So there’s plenty of data out there, I don’t know how much gets into the public I’ll have to say, I haven’t tested it. David: Something I know you believe is valuable is speed maps. I know the importance of them myself. But how do you incorporate something like that, that you know in many ways is subjective,