NonProphets
Summary: NonProphets is a weekly podcast about forecasting. The hosts became "superforecasters" based on the strength of their performances in the Good Judgment Project forecasting tournament, and they have continued to forecast on a wide array of topics with Good Judgment, Inc. In this podcast, they discuss their forecasting processes, and offer their analysis of questions on public forecasting platforms, such as the Good Judgment Open and Almanis, as well as other topics of interest to them. Most episodes end with a "Black Swan Hunt," in which they consider a momentous but low-probability event that may be more likely than many people think. Each episode is like the future: you can never be completely sure what will happen. Feel free to reach us/contact us/praise us/harangue us/offer suggestions for forecasts or Black Swan Hunts by way of the following: Blog: https://nonprophetspod.wordpress.com/ E-Mail: nonprophetspod@gmail.com (Please note that the views expressed in this podcast are those of the speakers, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions, policies, or positions of any organization or its members, including any mentioned forecasting platform or organization. All content, including any written or spoken discussion, analysis, opinion, estimate, or, of course, forecast, reflects the judgment of the speaker or writer at a particular time. They are not promises or guarantees; rely on them at your own risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and this podcast is intended to entertain (the audience and ourselves) only. Forecasts are not prophecies, and they may change substantially and/or frequently due to new facts, a new evaluation of old facts, or a myriad of other factors. In fact, it's helpful to revisit, re-evaluate, and, if necessary, revise forecasts with some frequency. You have been warned.)
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- Artist: Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, Scott Eastman
- Copyright: Copyright 2018 NonProphets
Podcasts:
Episode 20 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the first month of the Age of Trump. Will we see a Trump Trillion dollar coin minted during his administration (1:45)? Limits on power: Judicial, Congress, Deep State (7:15). Town-halls and public opposition in the US and Romania (12:30). Sorting fact from fiction - information overload (26:10). Is the Administration unified/Who has the power(29:15)? Will a trillion dollar infrastructure plan be enacted this year (39:20)? Seven new earth like planets lead to a Bannon Fourth Turning discussion (45:20). They close with North Korea: Poisonous reality TV (51:00)? As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 2/22/2017)
Episode 19 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the odds that President Trump will be impeached (00:40), the odds that Trump will win the Nobel Peace Prize (12:24), which Trump administration official will be the first to leave office (14:39), what's wrong with New York Knicks management (18:30), whether the rumored Trump kompromat footage will appear on RedTube (25:24), whether Trump and Melania will split up (27:02), whether the Affordable Care Act will be repealed in 2017 (31:07), who the next justice to leave the Supreme Court will be (41:55), and whether the Trump administration will withdraw from the Iran deal (48:24). You can contact us at online at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or by e-mailing nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 2/12/2017)
Episode 18 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief, Robert, Scott, and friend of the podcast and small business owner, James, discuss Trump's 1-in-2-out regulations executive order (00:57), virtual reality and deception (20:16), assigning values to political actors (27:20), and authenticating information (32:10). They close with a discussion of a "corruption amnesty" and protests in Romania (42:47). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 2/1/2017)
Episode 17 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk to Michael Story about his background, approach to forecasting, and Russian pizza (2:18), training to improve forecasting skills (6:54), and the UK, Brexit, the rise of nationalism, and NATO (22:05). They close with a discussion of UK vs. Argentina round 2, and the growing concern about the possible use of a nuclear weapon (43:46). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. You can find information about the fascinating work that Michael Story does at michaelwstory.com. (recorded 1/26/2017)
Episode 16 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief, Robert, and Scott finish an in media res discussion of effective charitable giving, turkey hunting, and the chickens of Hawaii (00:37), discuss the Trump press conference and information in the Trump Age (5:18), and then play Trump vs. Obama (32:46), including comparing first-term approval ratings (33:33), unemployment rates (45:34), and manufacturing employment (47:00). They close with a discussion of the possibility of a Tea Party on the left (51:34) and their Bubble Quiz results (53:59). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 1/11/2017)
Episode 15 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss recent political developments and forecasting in the new year, the first year of the incoming Trump administration. They close by discussing their New Year's resolutions, which involve scholarship (Robert, Scott), and a potential podcast mash-up (Atief). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com.
Episode 14 of the NonProphets podcast (recorded prior to the holiday season), in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview Seth Baum, Ph.D., Executive Director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, about a recent article that he wrote in which he discusses risks associated with the Trump presidency (http://thebulletin.org/what-trump-means-global-catastrophic-risk10266) (00:42). We then speculate about Trump-branded arcologies (33:40), Plato and Trump (37:08), and the importance of civic activity during the incoming administration (38:03). Atief, Robert, and Scott close by revisiting a few holiday-season forecasts before discussing their holiday plans, and vampires (45:02). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. Dr. Seth Baum's fascinating work can be found at Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (thebulletin.org), as well as the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute (gcrinstitute.org).(recorded 12/22/2016)
Episode 13 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief (from the highway), Robert, and Scott discuss the Pantone 2017 Color of the Year (2:10), Amazon's 10 best sellers of the holiday season (16:25), and the opening weekend box office potential of Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (22:17). They close with a discussion about the Merrick Garland nomination, and rumors of a dramatic way to confirm him as a Supreme Court justice (27:32). As always, you may contact them at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 12/7/2016).
Episode 12 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the growing awareness of, and interest in, "fake news" and its impact on politics and our ability to productively discuss important community issues (1:08). They then look at forecasting issues associated with upcoming elections in Austria and France in the wake of a wave of nationalist sentiment (34:21). Next week: a special holiday forecasting podcast! As always, you may contact them at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 11/30/2016).
Episode 11 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the Oxford English Dictionary choosing "Post-Truth" as the 2016 word of the year, then discuss a listener question about polling, forecasting, and the practical differences between cautious and confident positions (27:07). They then speculate about some possible future events related to elections, including electoral college reform, making election day a national holiday, faithless electors, and the possibility of a Trump impeachment (37:45). They close with a discussion about what we might see, at least preliminarily, with respect to Trump's foreign policy, and then discuss the problems with naming your child "Kermit" (46:58). As always, you may contact them at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 11/16/2016).[We apologize for the delay in releasing this episode, stemming from a combination of technical and logistical issues.]
Episode 10 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss their forecasts and the pre-election polls, before moving on to forecasting domestic policy in the Trump administration, including general issues and whether President Obama will pardon Hillary Clinton (17:52), a preliminary discussion of the international consequences of a Trump presidency (29:18), and whether they would swap out Trump for Charlie Sheen (40:10). They close with a discussion of Robert's election night, and some final thoughts (41:35). As always, you may contact them at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 11/10/2016). [We apologize for the delay in releasing this episode, stemming from a combination of technical and logistical issues.]
Episode 9 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the most recent polls, contextualize the expected horse race-style reporting of the next few days, and speculate about whether there will by any surprises over the weekend, and when either candidate will concede. Plus, a quick discussion about whether Mean Girls offers a way forward for our dysfunctional political system. As always, you may contact them at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 11/3/2016).
Episode 8 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott answer a listener e-mail about the previous interview, the Fermi paradox, and the Great Filter (01:02), discuss coordination problems (6:18), update election probabilities and discuss the possible erosion of norms in US politics (15:37), and then break down some US Election "Best Bets" on public betting sites (32:04). We close with a discussion of the hypothetical Biden-Trump fight (57:44), and then pledge to discuss other topics, and not let Trump Smurf our podcast all the Trump. As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 10/29/2016).
Episode 7 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview Seth Baum, Ph.D., Executive Director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, about forecasting events that could have a significant impact on humanity. We then catch up on developments in the US election and explore a handful of future tech-related forecasts, including whether Atief will ever be left to die on Mars. We finish by previewing next week's "best bets" US politics podcast, in which we will look at election questions from political betting sites and submitted by listeners. (recorded 10/20/2016)
Ep. 7: An Interview with Seth Baum, Ph.D., Executive Director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, Followed by a Brief Look at US Politics, a Discussion of Two Technology-Related Forecasts, and a Look at Next Week's Politics "Best Bets" Podcast
