NonProphets show

NonProphets

Summary: NonProphets is a weekly podcast about forecasting. The hosts became "superforecasters" based on the strength of their performances in the Good Judgment Project forecasting tournament, and they have continued to forecast on a wide array of topics with Good Judgment, Inc. In this podcast, they discuss their forecasting processes, and offer their analysis of questions on public forecasting platforms, such as the Good Judgment Open and Almanis, as well as other topics of interest to them. Most episodes end with a "Black Swan Hunt," in which they consider a momentous but low-probability event that may be more likely than many people think. Each episode is like the future: you can never be completely sure what will happen. Feel free to reach us/contact us/praise us/harangue us/offer suggestions for forecasts or Black Swan Hunts by way of the following: Blog: https://nonprophetspod.wordpress.com/ E-Mail: nonprophetspod@gmail.com (Please note that the views expressed in this podcast are those of the speakers, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions, policies, or positions of any organization or its members, including any mentioned forecasting platform or organization. All content, including any written or spoken discussion, analysis, opinion, estimate, or, of course, forecast, reflects the judgment of the speaker or writer at a particular time. They are not promises or guarantees; rely on them at your own risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and this podcast is intended to entertain (the audience and ourselves) only. Forecasts are not prophecies, and they may change substantially and/or frequently due to new facts, a new evaluation of old facts, or a myriad of other factors. In fact, it's helpful to revisit, re-evaluate, and, if necessary, revise forecasts with some frequency. You have been warned.)

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  • Artist: Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, Scott Eastman
  • Copyright: Copyright 2018 NonProphets

Podcasts:

 Ep. 35: Interview with Elaine Rich | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 0:57:19

Episode 35 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief, Robert, Scott talk with Elaine Rich. Elaine was with the Good Judgment Project since its first year, is a Superforecaster, and a dispensing pharmacist at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center. She was featured on NPR, promoting the Good Judgment Project. We discuss what drew her to forecasting, what has contributed to her ongoing success, and the merits of working anonymously vs. in a group, and probabilistically vs being a pundit. As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 7/12/2017)

 Ep. 34: Football With Knives | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 0:00:59

Episode 34 of NonProphets, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about Romanian politics and Romanian tax policy (0:48), the recent special election in Georgia's 6th congressional district (15:17), the Republican healthcare bill's chances in the Senate (26:58), whether military action could make President Trump more popular (34:44), whether Nancy Pelosi makes it harder for Democrats to win elections (38:20), "Trump's Mirror" (39:59), and how the Supreme Court will rule in its upcoming partisan gerrymandering case (47:30). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 6/21/2017)

 Ep. 33: Models | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 0:00:55

Episode 33 of NonProphets, in which Atief and Scott welcome back Robert, who discusses his vacation (00:12), before the three of them give their thoughts on the Comey hearing (5:00), Hawaiian superstitions (7:59), violence in politics (9:44), and different models for trying to understand and predict the Trump administration (24:15). They close with an additional discussion of Robert's vacation (47:55), the COVFEFE Act and Trump's Twitter account as a presidential record (48:46), and Senator Charles Schumer, Harvard legend (53:32). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com.

 Ep. 32: The Fisher Protocol | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 1:13:41

Episode 32 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief and Scott (Robert’s on vacation) discuss: Have probabilities broken? (1:30). Comey – Who’s the liar? (4:30). Polarization is leading to violence, but there are bright signs of humanity across the political spectrum (10:35). How to reduce the risk of nuclear war by employing the Fisher Protocol (19:45). Inflection points (21:00). Kansas experiment in conservative economics (34:50). UK – Theresa May (36:45). A model for the Trump Administration – Anti-Elitism/Technocrats (46:45). They close with a discussion of whether President Trump will discover the power of the Pardon Pen in 2017. As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 6/8/2017).

 Ep. 31: Special Counsel - Fast, Slow, or No? | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 0:49:24

Episode 31 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the Special Counsel and forecasting whether recent events will lead to impeachment or resignation of Trump. As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 5/17/2017)

 Ep. 30: The Brief Wondrous Tenure of Jim Comey | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 1:09:09

Episode 30 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott—recorded the day after it happened—discuss the surprise firing of FBI Director James Comey (1:11), whether Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein will appoint Special Counsel to investigate the Trump campaign's ties to Russia (11:12), why firing the FBI Director is problematic even though the president has the legal authority to fire him (13:42), what President Trump could do with the pardon power (17:05), whether we should expect widespread voter suppression in 2018 (22:00), what motivates the Republican Party (32:51), where we will be a year from now (40:09), who the next FBI director will be (43:45), whether Trump could actually be removed from office (48:41), and how Trump is like the Mule from Isaac Asimov's Foundation Series (1:03:34). We end the podcast by learning about Scott's alter ego "Nigel Shakespear" (1:06:24). As always, you may contact them at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 5/10/2017)

 Ep. 29: Happy Summer Bets and Catastrophes | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 1:01:02

Episode 29 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief, Robert and Scott discuss Happy Summer Bets and Natural Catastrophes (01:30), Living on Lava Plains (14:00), Forecasting Summer Blockbusters (22:00), Top Summer Songs (33:33), The French Election (41:00), Comey?/Forecasting Campaigns (49:30), Affordable Care Act (58:00). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 5/3/2017)

 Ep. 28: Rare Birds | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 0:38:26

Episode 28 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss what makes a good leader (1:10), the French election (6:13), President Trump's first 100 days (11:55), President Trump's suggestion that we consider heading to Mars a decade earlier than planned (31:21), and the March for Science (34:12). They close with a brief foray into the Romanian pop music scene (36:13). As always, you may contact them at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 4/26/2017).

 Ep. 27: The French Election, the Future of NATO and the EU | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 1:03:46

Episode 27 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Atief's foray into the world of Trump bets (00:47); the danger of not staying centered in the truth (11:06); is Jason Chaffetz is not seeking re-election a harbinger for 2018 or just a random event? (12:51:, the likelihood of North Korean nuclear test (21:16); the dangers of anchoring (22:20); the French election (23:26); Le Pen / Frexit - the future of the E.U. and NATO (28:31); the investment theory of party competition and other cures for insomnia (33:44); governing by fear (49:26); why Trump is taking so long to appoint administration officials (51:00); and a bunch of stuff about meat (57:20). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 4/20/2017)

 Ep. 26: What Does Chaos Mean to a German? (part zwei) | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 0:47:38

Episode 26 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott continue their discussion with German Superforecaster and economist Roman Hagelstein. Their discussion covers Syria (00:12) as well as Germany and Syrian refugees (9:22), the general opinions that Germans have with respect to Angela Merkel (12:06), the Superforecaster investment group (19:28), and a digression into sports betting and the NBA MVP race (31:28). We close with Scott opting to bum everyone out by bringing up North Korea and existential threats (40:22). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com.

 Ep. 25: What Does Chaos Mean to a German? | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 0:27:20

Episode 25 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk with German superforecaster and economist Roman Hagelstein about his background (0:15), how he gamed the Good Judgment Project’s forecasting markets (1:34), his general approach to forecasting (3:25), the value of “extremizing” forecasts (4:13), whether his German background affects how he forecasts (10:47), and why civil wars tend to last a long time (16:25).

 Ep. 24: Striking Syria | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 1:26:53

Episode 24 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief, Robert and Scott discuss where America will stand in the World Corruption Index from Transparency International at the end of 2017 (00:27), the probability of the US striking Assad's government or forces in Syria (22:20), Oops - events moved quickly, so we recorded a second segment to this podcast on the 7th - post Tomahawk strike (40:50), return to corruption discussion, Comey - the Man with a Code (1:01:40), and end with Gorsuch and such goes nuclear (1:03:00). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 4/5 and 4/7/2017)

 Ep. 23: I Have No Information | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 1:10:12

Episode 23 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the view from Sweden - Delphi and the World (1:15), in pursuit of the secret - paradigm shift or baserate? (10:50), Hawaii dreaming (14:25), Obama/Trumpcare (16:25), seeking objectivity in a polarised era (24:20), a cacophony from the top of the toilet tank (48:00), to vet or not to vet - consequences of credibility (49:00). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wodrpress.com or nonprophetspod@gmail.com . (recorded 3/22/2017)

 Ep. 22: Citizen of Nowhere | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 1:06:28

Episode 22 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk with superforecaster and assistant professor of quantitative sociology Sander Wagner about octopuses that can predict the future (1:02), about intergenerational mobility (2:30), about how living in four different countries has affected his perspective (16:53), about the upcoming elections in France (20:28), in the Netherlands (39:52), and in Germany (47:37), and about the future of Europe now that Donald Trump is president (57:19). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 3/7/2017)

 Ep. 21: Did Trump Pivot? | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 0:48:18

Episode 21 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about what Wikipedia is really good at (0:29), whether Trump's joint address to Congress represents a meaningful pivot (6:50), the possibility of American military action against North Korea (14:01), and the theory that we're all living in simulation gone haywire (38:28). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 3/1/2017)

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