NonProphets
Summary: NonProphets is a weekly podcast about forecasting. The hosts became "superforecasters" based on the strength of their performances in the Good Judgment Project forecasting tournament, and they have continued to forecast on a wide array of topics with Good Judgment, Inc. In this podcast, they discuss their forecasting processes, and offer their analysis of questions on public forecasting platforms, such as the Good Judgment Open and Almanis, as well as other topics of interest to them. Most episodes end with a "Black Swan Hunt," in which they consider a momentous but low-probability event that may be more likely than many people think. Each episode is like the future: you can never be completely sure what will happen. Feel free to reach us/contact us/praise us/harangue us/offer suggestions for forecasts or Black Swan Hunts by way of the following: Blog: https://nonprophetspod.wordpress.com/ E-Mail: nonprophetspod@gmail.com (Please note that the views expressed in this podcast are those of the speakers, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions, policies, or positions of any organization or its members, including any mentioned forecasting platform or organization. All content, including any written or spoken discussion, analysis, opinion, estimate, or, of course, forecast, reflects the judgment of the speaker or writer at a particular time. They are not promises or guarantees; rely on them at your own risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and this podcast is intended to entertain (the audience and ourselves) only. Forecasts are not prophecies, and they may change substantially and/or frequently due to new facts, a new evaluation of old facts, or a myriad of other factors. In fact, it's helpful to revisit, re-evaluate, and, if necessary, revise forecasts with some frequency. You have been warned.)
- Visit Website
- RSS
- Artist: Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, Scott Eastman
- Copyright: Copyright 2018 NonProphets
Podcasts:
Episode 50 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about forecasting on PredictIt (1:08); forecasts that could go either way (4:52); our 2017 forecasts (12:37); political attacks on objectivity (14:51); where Amazon will put its second headquarters (17:10); the US government's UFO program (20:30); the implications of the Mueller investigation (22:52); whether Justice Kennedy will retire (27:05); whether Democrats will retake Congress in 2018 (31:07); whether Bitcoin prices will keep going up (36:54), the prospects for bipartisanship in the US (44:43), the future of autonomous vehicles (47:49); whether we should expect more "doughnut politics" (50:42); and what we thought about Star Wars: The Last Jedi (57:55). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 12/22/2017)
Episode 48 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss warning sirens in Hawaii (00:00) before discussing celebrity baby names (03:04), the tax bill (05:15), the 2018 Pantone of the year (25:15), and the upcoming Star Wars movie's expected performance (37:46). They close with a discussion of royal baby name forecasts (44:16), as well as the Benjamin Moore color of the year (51:24). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 12/1/2017, before the 2018 Pantone of the year was announced).
Episode 47 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott catch up on recent news (01:06), discuss a Middle East-related Black Swan (12:10), and then dive into a variety of US politics-related PredictIt questions (28:01), including the Senate and tax cuts (28:43), the Senate special election (32:30), and an early look at the 2020 presidential election (48:17). They close with a discussion of the possibility of Paul Manafort being pardoned (54:40). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 11/17/2017).
Episode 45 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Robert and Scott interview superforecaster Bruno Jahn about his background in forecasting and about his forthcoming book, Sichere Prognosen in unsicheren Zeiten (Certain Forecasts in Uncertain Times). We talk with Bruno about how he got started with the Good Judgment Project (01:04), how to tell the difference between accuracy and luck in forecasting (10:00), whether expertise can get in the way of forecasting (23:20), his book on forecasting (31:00), how forecasting can be an antidote to fake news (43:19), the value of Twitter and online information sources (55:07), what superforecasters are like (1:01:18), whether we will see a "Jamaica coalition" in Germany (1:08:35), and the collapse of center-left parties in Europe (1:14:28). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 11/01/2017)
Episode 45 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott are joined by superforecaster and friend of the pod Welton Chang to talk about the new NBA season. We talk about the LA Clippers' chances of winning as many games as last year (01:46), the Ewing Theory (11:23), what the Golden State Warriors' slow start means (32:25), what Knicks fans can realistically hope for (34:27), Russell Westbrook's chances of repeating as MVP (38:09), which teams are most likely to be in the finals (39:19), and CSU Sibiu's chances of winning La Liga Națională (40:27). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 10/25/2017)
Episode 44 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss a research paper on bullshit, including what bullshit is and who is susceptible to it (the paper itself may be found here: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/285206383_On_the_reception_and_detection_of_pseudo-profound_bullshit), practical takeaways (18:03), Scott's real-world example of ontological confusion (28:36), why people like conspiracy theories (30:55), and white privilege, as well as privilege in general (32:15). They close with a discussion about improving critical thinking, and how some of that improvement seems to simply be a matter of people wanting to do it better (37:45). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 10/19/2017).
Episode 43 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Catalonian independence (00:45), good information and bad information in US domestic politics (19:00), and the possibility of the US changing its approach to permissible speech in the context of fake news (36:36). They close with a discussion of the 2nd Amendment, gun laws, and the mass shooting in Las Vegas, including how guns laws may change, and the probability of a similar shooting in the near future (37:50). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 10/4/2017)
Episode 42 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert and Scott interview the University of Cambridge Centre for the Study of Existential Risk's Dr. Shahar Avin. We discuss the prospects for the development of artificial general intelligence (00:54), why general intelligence might be harder to control than narrow intelligence (04:29), how we can forecast the development of new, unprecedented technologies (07:54), what the greatest threats to human survival are (11:25), the "value-alignment problem" and why developing artificial intelligence might be dangerous (14:39), what form artificial intelligence is likely to take (18:32), recursive self-improvement and "the singularity" (22:05), whether we can regulate or limit the development of AI (26:46), the prospect of an AI arms race (29:21), how AI could be used to undermine political security (31:01), Open AI and the prospects for protective AI (34:55), tackling AI safety and control problems (38:51), why it matters what data is used to train AI (45:58), when we will have self-driving cars (49:14), the potential benefits of AI (55:42), and why scientific research should be funded by lottery (57:23). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 9/27/2017)
Episode 41 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert and Scott interview Welton Chang, a fellow Superforecaster, former Defense Intelligence Agency analyst, stationed in South Korea and with two deployments to Iraq. He is ...
Episode 40 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Bitcoin (4:50), summer forecasts (14:10), hurricanes (21:30), team forecasting (32:15), problems of homogeneity in forecasting (37:00), WEIRD bias (42:50), whether egalitarian groups combat groupthink (45:20), and when political opinions become motivated reasoning (50:10). They close with a serious discussion of which trick is best: consulting a Magic 8 Ball or betting against the most unlucky person you can find. As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 9/13/2017)
Episode 39 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott announce that IARPA's new Hybrid Forecasting Competition is looking for volunteer forecasters (00:19), interrupt their own discussion to explain that some of the podcast audio was lost due to what they believe was an attack by a rogue AI (06:28), discuss to what extent we can trust the output of AI forecasters (08:09), talk about the "value-alignment problem" in AI design (21:39), and return to the question of how much we can trust AI before the podcast is mysteriously cut off (26:46). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 8/16/2017)
Episode 38 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss US news stories prior to a brief, upcoming vacation, including what Trump says vs. what Trump actually believes (00:52), our military presence in Afghanistan (7:19), Trump and North Korea (13:15), and the possibility of a senior member of the Trump administration leaving (OTE - Gorka!) (25:41). They close with a discussion of whether Trump will pardon Sheriff Joe Arpaio (OTE - yes!). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 8/22/2017)
Episode 37 of the NonProphets podcast in which Robert and Scott interview Colin Teichholtz, a partner and portfolio manager at global investment firm Pine River Capital about how he made money arbitraging used books in college and what makes someone good at identifying value in markets (0:41), whether people who trade with major investment firms are suckers (8:10), the value of financial advice (13:51), the advantages and disadvantages of risk parity funds (19:48), what drives changes in market volatility (23:08), what will happen if Congress doesn't raise the debt ceiling (37:03), why market volatility has been low recently (39:52), why inflation hasn't been going up much in the US even though unemployment is low (43:49), whether productivity growth in the US has stalled (55:05), whether Mark Zuckerberg will run for president in 2020 (57:01), what it's like to work next to Trump Tower (59:06), and why he introduced Michael J. Fox to Anthony Scaramucci (1:05:49). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 8/3/2017)
Episode 36 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief, Robert, Scott discuss the PredictIt group forecasts about the possibility of Trump leaving office by the end of 2017 or 2018 (00:19), voter suppression (34:45), the possibility of compelling evidence of collusion (42:06), and Democratic messaging, rhetoric, and the "war on reality" (46:05). They close with a discussion of recent news regarding North Korea's nuclear weapons program (54:04). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 7/26/2017)
