Top Traders Unplugged

"I think astrology is not about getting fame by predicting some negative event. Astrology is about guiding someone, to help people." - Mahendra Sharma (Tweet) I first interviewed today's guest back in 2015, where he predicted the Dow Jones Index would go to 32,000...a bold call back then. Mahendra Sharma is an astrological investor with an amazing track record of accurately predicting market fluctuations. He has spent his career studying astrological charts and conveying those findings, along with his understanding of human behavior, into a lucrative business giving advice on when to sell and when to hold various commodities, bonds, and currencies. His latest book on 2021 Financial Prophecies will be released in January. Thanks for listening and please welcome back to the show our guest Mahendra Sharma. Subscribe on: In This Episode, You'll Learn: How Mahendra got into astrology Why he relocated to Kenya as a young man Why Mahendra pivoted to predicting the global markets Why Mahendra stopped predicting big world events after 9/11 How he built his financial astrological charts and what he is looking for How astrological charts are in some ways similar to other statistical based investment approaches How human behavior fits into the astrological process Mahendra's prediction of Tesla from 2018 "The truth about it is money plays a central role in this life, and we can do a lot of good things with it." - Mahendra Sharma (Tweet) What are Mahendra's predictions for 2021 What trend the European equities markets will follow Why Mahendra sees an issue with the Euro as we approach 2024 The interesting correlation between the year 2021 and the Fibonacci sequence Mahendra's interesting prediction about Gold for the year 2052 Where Mahendra sees the $Dollar bottoming out What commodities stand out to Mahendra Mahendra's prediction for a potential Bitcoin CRASH in early 2021 Why investors should be careful after 2024 Connect with Financial Astrology: Visit the Website: mahendraprophecy.com Call Financial Astrology: +1-805-403-4781 E-Mail: mahendra@mahendraprophecy.com Follow Mahendra Sharma on LinkedIn   "What I am seeing now, today, definitely the Dow will hit 32,000. There is no doubt about it." - Mahendra Sharma (Tweet) Subscribe on: Full Transcript The following is a full detailed transcript of this conversion. Click here to subscribe to our mailing list, and get full access to our library of downloadable eBook transcripts! Show More

"You have this asset class which has been around for hundreds of years, but up until recently I think people haven't fully appreciated the characteristics." - Scott Lynn (Tweet) Scott Lynn is the Founder and CEO of Masterworks. He began his career as a serial entrepreneur, starting tech companies focused on casual gaming, online advertising and financial technology. All along the way he collected art, and after seeing the data available in the last twenty years thanks to the Internet, Scott decided to pursue art as an investment. Art as an asset class has been around for hundreds of years, but only recently has been seen as a viable investment opportunity - made possible by Masterworks. Listen in on today's episode to find out why art is becoming more popular as an asset class among investors, what the key macro drivers are for art, and how Masterworks is making art an accessible investment opportunity. Thanks for listening and please welcome our guest Scott Lynn. Subscribe on: In This Episode, You'll Learn: How the art market is different today than it was twenty five years ago How old art is as an asset class How analyzing art is different from analyzing other asset classes When did art as an asset class begin to be studied How art returns are related to the growth of the top 1% "There's so much opportunity in the art market compared to other asset classes." - Scott Lynn (Tweet) How art prices are driven by a decreasing supply of new works How should an art collector think about risk What is a bad environment for art investment How Masterworks invests in art What is a standard commission when buying a piece of art What are the trends among art investors Connect with Masterworks: Visit the Website: Masterworks Call Masterworks: +1 203-518-5172 E-Mail Masterworks: support@masterworks.io Follow Scott Lynn on LinkedIn   "The thing that amazes me about the art market is how it's still very much in its infancy." - Scott Lynn (Tweet) Subscribe on: Full Transcript The following is a full detailed transcript of this conversion. Click here to subscribe to our mailing list, and get full access to our library of downloadable eBook transcripts! Scott You think about the art market, art as an asset class is 1.7 trillion dollars. That's a number that's published by Deloitte and has been (more or less) confirmed by Sotheby's. Last year 68 billion dollars in art sold, so think it as a couple of percent turnover every year. Compare that to venture and private equity, which is 3.5 trillion dollars. There are six thousand firms that operate in venture, private equity, late-stage buyout, whatever, that help people allocate to the asset class. In the art market, there is nobody. Introduction Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders, imaging learning from their experiences, their successes, and their failures. Imagine no more, welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world so you can take your manager due diligence or investment career to the next level. Before we begin today’s conversation remember to keep two things in mind: all the discussion that we’ll have about investment performance is about the past, and past performance does not guarantee or even infer anything about future performance. Also understand that there’s a significant risk of financial loss with all investment strategies and you need to request and understand the specific risks, from the investment manager, about their products before you make investment decisions. Here’s your host, veteran hedge fund manager Niels Kaastrup-Larsen. Niels Hey everyone and welcome to another edition of Top Traders Unplugged where today I'm joined by Scot...

In today’s episode, we are joined by Michael Green, of Logica Capital advisors. Michael has over 20 years as a portfolio manager, mainly in the global macro space. Recently he has become well known because of his work on the shift to passive investing, and inevitably this was one of the topics we wanted to ask Mike about. Our conversation wasn’t limited to that however, and we also discussed comparisons between the present day and previous historical crisis (going back to the Roman Empire!), as well as many other interesting subjects. Topics Discussed in this Episode   * Passive investing * ETFs and target date funds * Intergenerational inequality “(The) growth of passive is now basically built into the system. From a regulatory framework, all the new money that comes into the U.S Savings and Investment accounts (primarily in the form of 401Ks and IRAs), are coming in passive vehicles.” * Real interest rates over history * Mean reversion and momentum * Negative interest rates “I think negative interest rates are absurd and that they're a view that I articulated back in 2015 and is now, I think, increasingly accepted that they're ultimately harmful to the banking system. They create a tax on the banking system.” * Leverage: recourse vs no recourse (limited liability) “I think another component that people generally under-appreciate is that while we all complain about leverage and we complain about the high levels of debt, the flavor-de-jour of how we solve this is something like risk parity which says, "OK, let's lever our portfolio 10X in the fixed income space, and let's add..." * MMT “MMT is right but it offers almost no prescriptions for how that money should be spent. So, by handing it over to the politicians, we're at least in a situation where you could see outcomes of how that money gets spent that we have never predicted.” * Yield enhancement strategies Links Catch up with Michael and learn more about his work: Logica Follow Niels, Moritz, Rob on Twitter: Niels Kaastrup-Larsen Moritz Seibert Rob Carver Subscribe on:

In today’s show, we discuss why a great defence is necessary for great portfolios, Trend Following on ETFs, why liquidity is often an under-appreciated factor when choosing markets, why you need to include shorts, tips for testing system code, why futures are better for short positions than stocks, and why investing in alternative strategies can allow you to be more aggressive when chasing stock market returns.  We also answer some of your questions, including: What is your chosen measure of liquidity?  Do you place your trades at the open, close, or other times? If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive & @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:44 - Macro recap from Niels 3:00 - Weekly review of returns 4:25 - The importance of non-correlated strategies such as Trend Following or Volatility-based 15:17 - Q’s 1, 2 & 3; Bruno: What is your chosen measure of liquidity, and how liquid does a market have to be, to be included in your portfolios? How do you size positions, with co-movements in mind?  Are you always trading the front-month contract? 26:37 - Q4; Walter: How do you test your system’s code? 33:14 - Q’s 5 & 6; Zack: Does Trend Following on ETFs work? What are the optimal time periods when analysing market correlation data? 45:01 - Q7: Michael: Do you place your trades at the close, open, or other times? 50:23 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

Our guest today is Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist for Quill intelligence. One of the major themes of our podcast series so far has been the reactions of central banks to the global pandemic, and it’s likely effects on inflation and asset prices. As a former Fed insider, with nine years of experience as an advisor to the president of the Dallas Fed, Danielle is uniquely positioned to give us her take on the action taken by central banks so far, and what their next move is likely to be. However, our conversation was not just about the Fed, as it covered many other interesting topics including the curious timing of the US-China trade talks and when we first learned about COVID in the autumn of 2019 (one for conspiracy theorists!). Topics Discussed in this Episode * COVID-19 * QE and the transmission mechanism * China “The number of people moving from Chinese Suburbs, urbanization if you will, a massive, massive secular trend, was coming to an end… You pile the trade war into this preexisting dynamic, in 2019, and you end up with the global economy headed for recession. At the same time, you had leverage, of course, in a very, very bad place.” * US bond market * Monetary policy rules and the choice of inflation measure * Democracy: Revolution or direct democracy? “Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke were fighting, and fighting, and fighting for this two percent target for years but it wasn’t until Alan Greenspan left the Fed that they were able to actually implement it.” * China-US trade * Inequality “The Fed is doing a lot for the top 1%. The Fed is helping private equity not get buried in some very bad investments that they have made. They’re helping the wealthy stay wealthier.” * Negative interest rates “The one thing that I will give J. Powell credit for is holding the line on negative interest rates. It’s clear from listening to everybody on the committee and every district president that there is unity and a cohesive solid front against negative interest rates” * Bitcoin and ‘Fedcoin’ Links Catch up with Danielle and learn more about her work: Quill Intelligence Follow Niels, Moritz, & Rob on Twitter: Niels Kaastrup-Larsen Moritz Seibert Rob Carver Subscribe on:

Today, we’re delighted to welcome Mark Rzepczynski onto the show to discuss his time working with John W. Henry and what J. W. Henry’s ‘secret weapon’ was, the most effective way to gain downside protection, how to overcome behavioural biases in investing, how diversification can reduce profitability during huge trends, how to effectively make the case for Trend Following to potential investors, where returns dispersion among CTAs is stemming from, and one of our favourite topics: how many markets in a portfolio is too many? Check out Mark’s blog here. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Moritz & Mark on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert, & @MRzepczynski And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:14 - Macro recap from Niels 2:53 - Weekly review of returns 5:55 - Niels: Can you tell us about your journey to where you are today? 10:24 - Niels: Do you think John Henry’s success in sports can be partly down to his previous Trend Following methodologies? 12:18 - Niels: How do think we as humans overcome our behavioural biases in investing? 14:32 - Moritz: To what extent do systematic CTAs need laser-like focus, compared to others? 17:57 - Moritz: How did the day-to-day business of John W. Henry run? 21:00 - Niels: What led to John W. Henry eventually dissolving his firm, and what have leading CTAs today, who have been around since then, done right to still be successful? 29:02 - Moritz: How many markets in a trading system are too many? 42:06 - Niels to Moritz: How do you really benefit from correlation-based position sizing? 49:35 - Mark to hosts: How do you utilise momentum ranking in your portfolios? 55:45 - Niels: Where do you think returns dispersion among CTAs stems is stemming from? 57:21 - Moritz: What can be done better, in terms of selling a strategy to potential clients? 1:10:16 - Niels: How do you get so many ideas for content for your blog?1:12:32 - Niels: Do you have specific times of the day to do your writing?1:13:55 - Moritz: Why is the concept of convexity so popular nowadays? 1:18:06 - Niels: What is the best downside protection, in your opinion? 1:23:05 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

Today we are very lucky to welcome Larry McDonald as our guest. Larry is the founder of the Bear Traps report, and has extensive experience in consulting and investment banking. His bestselling book “A colossal failure of common sense”, described his time as a Vice President at Lehman brothers where Larry had a ringside view of the last financial crisis. Needless to say this gives him an interesting perspective on the current state of the global markets. Our very enjoyable conversation covered a wide range of topics from high level macro, across Silver and Copper, and down to individual stocks like Tesla. Topics Discussed in this Episode * Risk Indicators * Unemployment * Modern Monetary Theory * US Dollar "At the end of the day, so the dollar ripped 82 to 104 and that moved crushed middle American jobs and really, I think it partially cost Hillary Clinton the election… I think the Trump camp has learned that you really can't have a runaway dollar heading towards an election. You really want that dollar down and that will help whatever is left of middle America. * Inequality * Inflation “The inflation camp, every one of them is pegging it on twelve to eighteen months from now. Whereas, the deflation camp is pretty high conviction that we're going to have a problem near-term. ” * Gold and Silver * 2020 Election "I just don't think that the White House really wants to have a problem with China in the last two, three months before the election." * Tesla " Tesla is at close to three hundred (billion), so Tesla would come in at anywhere between twelve and ten in terms of the S&P 500. So it would come in, basically, in the top twelve companies which has never happened before." * Warren Buffet  * Fed balance sheet  Links Catch up with Larry McDonald and learn more about his work: The Bear Traps Report Follow Niels, Moritz, & Rob on Twitter: Niels Kaastrup-Larsen Moritz Seibert Rob Carver Subscribe on:

Todays’ guest is Erik Townsend, host of the Macro voices podcast. Erik has an unusual background, as he had a very successful career as a technology entrepreneur before turning his hand to commodity trading. His background gives him a different perspective to many in the financial world, as we discovered in our conversation. Our discussion explored the possible consequences of the action taken by central banks in the last and current crisis; including rampant inflation, social unrest, and the overthrow of the dollar as the worlds reserve currency. As Erik said towards the end of our conversation “Put your seatbelt on, there could be some rough turbulence ahead”! Topics Discussed in this Episode * MMT * Inflation outlook & inflation hedging * QE "Most of that money that was conjured out of thin air by central banks didn't go to Main Street to provide more money in the pocket of the average consumer, it went to put more money in the pocket of the average investment banker to buy more assets." * China & Russia “If you are China and Russia, first of all, you don't care about votes because you rule through fear and intimidation, not through democracy. What you care about is shifting power from the west back to the east.” * Civil unrest & revolution "The current system, which is more cronyism than capitalism, the people of the world are pissed off. They're sick of it. I think that what we'll see over the next ten years is a major change." * Digital global reserve currency " I think that we'll eventually see the emergence of a digital currency that really gives the U.S. dollar a run for its money for the title of Global Reserve Currency. That's going to be what changes the Fed's ability to get away with what it has been doing." * Coronavirus Links Catch up with Erik Townsend and learn more about his work: MacroVoices Book: Beyond Blockchain Follow Niels, Moritz, & Rob on Twitter: Niels Kaastrup-Larsen Moritz Seibert Rob Carver Subscribe on:

Today, Robert Carver joins us to discuss JP Morgan’s comments on markets being fabricated by central bank liquidity, Tesla’s incredible swings in market cap, thoughts on Warren Buffett’s recent ‘value’ purchase, the point at which diversification in a portfolio becomes dilution, and the benefits of diversifying among different Trend Following managers. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Moritz & Rob on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert, & @InvestingIdiocy And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 0:45 - Check out the first 2 recent episodes of our Global Macro series 1:58 - Macro recap from Niels 3:18 - Weekly review of returns 11:44 - Thoughts on Warren Buffett’s recent ‘value’ purchase of the Dominion Energy’s natural gas pipelines & current Apple position 14:59 - Discussion on Mark Zepczynski’s article on being over-diversified 31:05 - Thoughts on AQR article regarding Tail Risk hedging 34:48 - Performance recap 35:41 - Check out Rob Carver’s recent article on his blog   Subscribe on:

Our guest for today’s episode is Preston Pysh, founder of BuffetsBooks.com and co-host at The Investors Podcast network. As a graduate of both West Point and John Hopkins, Preston is certainly the only person we have interviewed who has both an MBA but can also fly a helicopter. Mostly in the interview we were talking about economics rather than military strategy, but the topic of a US/China war did come up briefly. Preston has spent a lot of time thinking about value investing, and some of the most interesting parts of our discussion centred around the effects that money printing and technological change have had for the traditional value investor. But we also had a wide ranging chat about many other topics, including Moritz’s current favourite: Bitcoin. Topics Discussed in this Episode * Value Investing * The correct discounting of future cash flows * Demographic changes * The debt cycle * QE "I operate off this really fundamental thesis of manipulation: anytime somebody steps into a freely functioning system, like nature, for example, when man steps into nature and they start manipulating that, there is always a consequence of some sort that has to balance that manipulation out." * Berkshire Hathaway * The fundamental case for huge returns on Bitcoin “To be quite honest with you I don't know how anything is going to outperform bitcoin based on my opinions of how I think it's going to perform in the coming year and a half. I don't know how anything can outperform that simply because the market cap is so low.” * Yield curve control "The fixed income market is completely manipulated." * The failure of the dollar " Every single thing on the planet has to be sold in order to come up with dollars to adjudicate the differences of the trades and the differences of opinions and the impairment that happened on the balance sheets." * The connection between Bonds & Bitcoin prices * Why countries should be doing their best to accumulate Bitcoin Links Catch up with Preston Pysh and learn more about his work: The Investors Podcast We Study Billionaires Buffett's Books Follow Niels, Moritz, & Rob on Twitter: Niels Kaastrup-Larsen Moritz Seibert Rob Carver Subscribe on:

Our guest in todays episode is Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 partners. Julian has decades experience in investment banking on both sides of the Atlantic, and is a true original thinker. We had a highly enjoyable conversation with Julian, who has a unique knack of explaining his frequently controversial views in a thoroughly entertaining fashion. He has a wide knowledge of topics as varied as silver and shale oil, and his historical references ranged from the 2008 crash all the way back to the Black Death in the middle ages. Topics Discussed in this Episode * The consistency of the US dollar cycle * The COVID related March funding squeeze * US current and capital account deficit * Why Risk Parity strategies might be a bad idea going forward * The many visible signs of ‘the Fourth Turning’ and why global markets are at an inflection point * Unemployment "The U.S. just hit post Second World War highs (for unemployment), and if you don’t, post Great Depression highs. The point is that we are starting in an economic hole which is, arguably, much, much deeper than many of our peers. And that is in virtue of the fact that we have a super flexible labor market" * Why recent Federal Reserve liquidity injections into the market may not have been part of Quantitive Easing (QE), which could still be yet to come “As the economy starts to recover, that’s when we will come out with old fashioned QE." I’m like, “Jesus, what’s that? Is that another 80 billion a month, trillion a year?” And the answer is, “Almost certainly.” * Yield curve control * The independence of the Fed * The case for Systematic Trend Following commodity funds * Why Bitcoin may be a dangerous long-term investment "(That) is the day that you are presented with the option of handing your bitcoin over in the same way that you did with gold in the ‘30s or trying to keep hold of it and if you’re caught ending up in a big dark hole with a bloke called Bubba who calls you Shirley" * Financial repression * Why government bond yields may struggle to rise again * The history of global pandemics "There was this little bloke called Martin Luther who hung around as all the Catholic priests fled out to their country properties when we had the black death, who stayed and helped. Guess what? That was the cycle high of Catholicism. That was a relatively big turning point in History. Pandemics kind of do that" * Commodity markets * The case for Silver against the US dollar * How market cycles tend to repeat themselves * The importance of central bank policies when trying to gauge markets Links Catch up with Julian Brigden and learn more about his macroeconomic research firm, MI2Partners Julian BrigdenMI2Partners Follow Niels, Moritz, & Rob on Twitter: Niels Kaastrup-LarsenMoritz SeibertRob Carver Subscribe on:

On today’s episode, we discuss the clear link between stock market prices & the Federal Reserve balance sheet, the widening gap between the best & worst CTA performances, the influx of retail money into the stock market, how RobinHood makes its profits despite offering free trading, bond prices and what they may be telling us about the future, how CTAs might now be swinging back to the long side, and how lofty expectations are driving many stock prices unexpectedly higher. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, and @MoritzSeibert, And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:21 - Global macro review 2:42 - Weekly review of returns 5:15 - How lofty expectations are driving stock market prices 8:25 - What bond markets are telling us about the long prospects for equities 13:13 - Why we may be heading for an inflationary environment 19:05 - How CTA positioning is beginning to swing to the long side of equities 21:20  - Article on downside protection by Mark Zepczynski 28:29  - Article on high CTA returns dispersion by Mark Zepczynski 30:23 - Unveiling of guests, & more info, about our upcoming mini-series 44:47 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

How investors are easily swayed by misleading titles. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Are US Treasuries as safe as we really think? IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Meb Faber explains how to combine Trend Following with Buy & Hold. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on: