China Money Podcast – Audio Episodes

In this episode of China Money Podcast, guest Tom Delatour discusses investing in residential real estate in China's second-tier cities: - Middle class in China's tier II cities have growing abilities to afford housing as income increases faster than housing prices - When forming joint-ventures with Chinese property developers, it is essential to align interests by having the local partners to put up substantial equity - Policies on buyer restrictions in China will likely remain longer than expected "In tier two cities, housing prices were growing at 11.9 percent a year, but household income was growing at 13.1 percent. So you actually had the affordability for housing for the middle class in the tier two cities to really stay stable or actually slightly improve." - Tom Delatour Our Guest Today Tom Delatour is CEO and co-founder of Beijing-based Century Bridge Capital, a firm that invests in residential properties in China's second-tier cities. Delatour previously managed the real estate investments of the Robert M. Bass organization. Before that, he was with Lincoln Property Company and KPMG Peat Marwich. For more information, please visit: http://www.ChinaMoneyPodcast.com

In this episode of China Money Podcast, guest Michael Werner discusses Chinese banks' stocks; banks' exposure to local governments and the property sector; and whether Chinese banks will see their non-performing loan ratios skyrocket. Below are his main points: - There are still upsides for the Chinese banking stocks as they trade well below past levels - Chinese banks' exposure to local governments and the property sector is manageable. NPL ratio will likely go up to only 2.5 percent - Most listed Chinese banks have sustainable capital regimes and don't have to raise additional equity - Chinese banks' should focus on wealth management, custody business and financial advisory to boost their fee-based revenue - Fee-based revenue will keep growing at a 20 to 25 percent annual rate and will take up to 25 percent of banks' total revenue in five years - China could begin to liberalize deposit interest rates in a year or two, but it will not hurt banks' profitability "In general, I think Chinese banks are going to surprise people on how well they are provisioned and what the ultimate NPL ratio will be. Some people have been forecasting 8 to 12 percent (NPL ratio); that does not seem likely in our viewpoint." - Michael Werner Our Guest Today: Michael Werner is senior research analyst covering the Chinese and Hong Kong banks at Sanford Bernstein & Co. He has been with Bernstein for 12 years, previously covering U.S. banks, brokerages and European banks. Werner graduated from Brown University in 2000 with a BA in Economics and a BA in Mathematics. For more information, please visit: http://www.ChinaMoneyPodcast.com

In today’s podcast, guest Anthony Siu discusses Chinese cross-border M&A, what challenges Chinese companies face when doing deals overseas and what they need to do to improve: - Chinese outbound M&A will continue to grow at a high single digit to low double digit rate annually - Cross-border deals will tilt more toward outbound transactions with industries diversifying from natural resources to industrials, consumers and technologies - Physical distances, language barriers and valuation perspectives put Chinese companies at a disadvantage - Advising Chinese companies involves more hand-holding and helping Chinese companies learn the deal-making process along the way - Chinese buyers are not necessarily at a disadvantage as sellers’ key focuses are to get the deal done with good valuations “It’s very typical for deals to be done with a handshake here in China. But…extra due diligence is required if you want to make sure that the acquisition will end up to be a successful one.” -Anthony Siu Our Guest Today: Anthony Siu is managing director at Robert W. Baird & Co. Based in Shanghai, he is the head of Asia investment banking at the firm. Prior to Baird, Siu was a director of corporate advisory at Standard Chartered Bank, responsible for cross-border M&A transactions in China.

In today’s podcast, guest David Gosset discusses China’s potential help to the Eurozone and the long-term relationship between China and the European Union: - China probably prefers to offer potential assistance to the Eurozone through the IMF - There is no explicit trade-off for China’s financial assistance to Europe - Eurozone debt crisis will push further the process of integration of EU nations - The coming China-EU Summit will be a symbol to a more indispensable relationship between China and the EU - In the longer term, Chinese companies’ investment in Europe will be key for the Continent to propel growth “The European integration process has been a series of answers to a series of crises. The Euro debt crisis is another important series of crises, probably the third biggest crisis that Europe has faced since WWII. The result of that is going to be more European integration and more transfer of sovereignty.” – David Gosset Our Guest Today: David Gosset is the director of the Euro-China Center for International and Business Relations at China Europe International Business School in Shanghai and Beijing. He is also the Founder of the Euro-China Forum with the objective of nurturing mutual understanding between the two edges of the Eurasian continent.

In today’s podcast, guest Jack Perkowski, a.k.a. Mr. China, discusses his views on China’s economy in the year of dragon, where he sees great investment opportunities and key challenges facing China for the long term. - Chinese government has great monetary and fiscal resources to achieve a soft-landing - Property market and its potential downturn is not a threat to China’s overall economy - Chinese stock market may swing upward along with loosening monetary policy - In five years and beyond, the Renminbi will become fully convertible - Great investment opportunities exist in energy efficiency and environmental technologies, health care and the financial services “China needs to grow at somewhere between 7 to 9 percent (annually) to have an economy to absorb all of the new workers every year…so we are quite optimistic that china will continue on that growth path.” – Jack Perkowski Our Guest Today Jack Perkowski is the founder and managing partner at China-focused merchant bank JFP Holdings. Acclaimed as Mr. China, Mr. Perkowski came to China in the early 1990s and founded ASIMCO, one of the largest auto components companies in China. That journey is captured in his book: Managing the Dragon: How I’m Building a Billion Dollar Business in China.

In this podcast, we review the news on: - China’s economy is projected to grow at 8.4 percent this year by the World Bank - China and the United Arab Emirates signed a currency swap deal to expand the usage of the RMB - Average new home prices declined in December for the third consecutive month, but prices rose for the whole year in 2011 - China approved 14 institutions as Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors, expanding the scope of the QFII program

In today’s podcast, guest Robert Blohm discusses his views on China’s long-term challenges: - Changes of China’s demographics points to lower or even zero economic growth - The low-hanging fruit of reforms have been exhausted and serious actions are need to sustain economic miracle - China is likely to follow Japan’s path to a “lost decade” - Absent of major shift in policies, China will fall into the “middle-income trap” - China’s next leadership is key to China’s long-term future as it faces reflective point Our Guest Today: Robert Blohm is managing director at Keen Resource Asia. He is a professor of economics at China’s Central University of Finance and Economics. With a B.A. and a M.B.A. from McGill University, he studied under Nobel economist Robert Mundell while obtaining his P.h.D in economics from Columbia University.

In this podcast, we review the news on: - China’s trade surplus fell for the third consecutive year in 2011 - China’s consumer-price index continues to moderate with December CPI index lower for the fifth straight month - China’s total foreign reserves dropped for the first time since 1998 - Beijing and Shanghai continue property restriction policies this year - Overseas M&A by Chinese companies up 10% in 2011 - London to work with Hong Kong to become an offshore trading centre for the RMB

In this episode of China Money Podcast, guest Christopher Rothery, portfolio manager in the fixed income division at T. Rowe Price Group Inc., discusses where he sees opportunities in emerging market bonds and how the Eurozone debt crisis might affect emerging markets this year. Listen to the full interview in the audio podcast, watch the shortened video version or read a topic list. - European Central Bank will help ensure that the Eurozone debt crisis does not spiral out of control "Europe will probably continue to muddle through.…Yes, Greece may default, but the European Central Bank will manage the situation in the other periphery markets to the extent that they manage themselves either through the buying of periphery bonds by the ECB or providing liquidity to the banks…"- There is value in some currencies in Asia including the Korean Won and the Malaysian Ringgit - Corporate debt of food producing companies in emerging markets are attractive - China will manage an economic soft landing that will give markets further confidence - China's currency, the RMB, might appreciate at a slower rate this year between 2% to 3% - There is value to be found in the corporate bonds of select Chinese property developers About Christopher Rothery: Christopher Rothery is a portfolio manager in the fixed income division at Baltimore, Maryland-based T. Rowe Price Group Inc. He has twenty-four years of investment experience and currently focuses on emerging market bonds, both USD or local currency denomiated. Rothery attended London Guildhall University.   中国大陆用户请点击这里观看视频

In this edition of This Week In China, Nina Xiang review the news on: - Nomura expects China’s economy to slow down to 7.9% for 2012 due to investment and consumption slowdown - Bernstein Research lowers earning estimates for major Hong Kong banks by 7% for 2012 - China plans to launch an intermediary entity to expand margin trading and short selling operations - China’s new loans are estimated to increase to RMB8 trillion to RMB8.5 trillion in 2012 - China’s National Social Security Fund is said to consider investing in foreign private equity funds

In today’s podcast, guest Philip Cunningham discusses China’s pending leadership transition, and what that means for investors: - China will achieve a smooth leadership transition to the fifth generation of leaders led by Xi Jinping - That objective could point to heavier media crackdown and potential disruptions of businesses - Investors should stay cautious before and during the transitional phases in 2012 and 2013 - China’s near-term will remain stable as prosperity prevents messy, large-scale social upheaval “China looks pretty stable to me. There are sparks but I don’t see a chance of prairie fire right now, because prosperity brings some kind of fire quenching capacity. Things could muddle through for a long time. I don’t see (China) being explosive as it was in Egypt.” - Philip Cunningham Our Guest Today Philip Cunningham is a professor of media studies who has taught at Doshisha University in Kyoto and Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok. Currently as a visiting fellow at Cornell University, he has written about Asian affairs for over twenty years.

In this episode of China Money Podcast, guest John Wong, president of Oberweis Asset Management (Asia) Ltd, discusses his outlook for investment opportunities in 2012: - Chinese government will probably begin to ease monetary policy further after the second quarter - Inflation in China will likely be more subdued and stay around 3-4% going forward - Investment opportunities are in consumer discretionary stocks due to the increasing spending power of China's new rich - Automation companies that benefit from Chinese factories' move toward a more automated manufacturing process will outperform - Strong Chinese property developers will become attractive investments once policy starts to loosen - Biggest risks are continuing turmoil in Europe and a more severe slowing of the Chinese economy About John Wong: John Wong is president of Oberweis Asset Management (Asia) Ltd and the lead manager of Oberweis' Asia Opportunities fund and co-manager of the China Opportunities Fund. Previously, Wong was a senior portfolio manager at Wells Fargo Bank in San Francisco. He also managed assets at Founders Asset Management and at Offitbank. 中国大陆用户请点击这里去优酷网观看视频

In this episode of China Money Podcast, guest Kevin Pollack, managing director at Paragon Capital, discusses: - Short-seller Carson Block's attack on Focus Media Holdings: Will his accusations prove to be viable? - Chinese companies continue to retreat from U.S. stock market: What are the drivers and how long will this continue? - What are the methods to take U.S.-listed Chinese companies private, and how expensive are they? - How should Chinese companies decide if they should go private, and what happens afterward? About Kevin Pollack: Kevin Pollack is managing director at Paragon Capital, a New York-based investment firm with a focus on Chinese investments. He previously worked as an investment banker and attorney at Bank of America and Sidley Austin. He is a magna cum laude graduate of Wharton and holds J.D. and M.B.A. from Vanderbilt University. 中国大陆用户请点击这里去优酷网观看视频

In this episode of China Money Podcast, guest and veteran investor Jim Rogers discusses: - China's economy and stock market: Will the economy manage its challenges? Is there a bull market waiting ahead? - China's property market: What will be the consequence of a price correction? - China's Renminbi: Will it continue to appreciate against the dollar? What will happen once the Renminbi is freely convertible? - Should China buy European debt? If so, what should China expect in return? About Jim Rogers: Jim Rogers is the chairman of Rogers Holdings. He is an author with a number of best-selling books, including A Gift To My Children, Investment Biker and Adventure Capitalist. He received bachelor's degrees from Yale University and Oxford University. He currently lives in Singapore with his wife and two daughters.  

In this episode of China Money Podcast, guest and Chinese law blogger Stan Abrams discusses: - SEC's tightened new rules regarding reverse mergers of companies listing in the U.S.: Is this sufficient to protect investors? - Yum! Brands' acquisition of Chinese restaurant chain Little Sheep approved: Does this mean China is loosening its grip on foreign takeovers? - China National Development and Reform Commission investigates China Telecom and China Unicom: Will other big state-owned enterprises be next? - The U.S Trade Representative requests information on China's Internet censorship: What is the real motive behind the U.S. regulator's move? About Stan Abrams: Stan Abrams is a Beijing-based lawyer with focuses on technology, intellectual property and Internet-related law issues. Mr. Abrams has extensive experience in foreign direct investment in China, having worked here for over 12 years. He also teaches law at Beijing’s Central University of Finance and Economics. He authors blog China Hearsay.